A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
